This is raw scan of the Handbook images.
[pages 17-46 not yet scanned.]
[pages 47-50]
Developing Analytical Objectivity
Official Use Only Pitfalls To Avoid and Why , L
. Fearing "Failure"
Passinz the Buck Letthgfevr of fifing impede yoar efforK We want to be correct all the timet but analysis is an art form, not eight hours on the assembly line. Even ie best and brightese get it wrong now and then. Remember:
You can't predict effectively if you don't nsk t einK wrong.
Organizations should tolerate occasional wrong calls if the analysis was based on the best available e+~idence and was well reasoned and effectively presented.
In most cases? managers and coordinators have agreed with the analysis, making it the organization's lot the individual'sresponsibility .
Expecting someone etse to do yonr einatysis. Analysts sometimes try io depend on collectors to arlalyze or explain an eRrent. Collectors generally are snuart, well-informed people, t}ut:
You~the analyst-norTnslly have more information than collectors have.
Collectors obtain a variety of data from many disciplines. They usually asen't trained to interpret Fis material-analysts generally are.
Waiting for the defuiitive word can keep you from predœcting an event early enough to make your analysis useful.
IJooking lBackward Basxng your analysis on kistory. History is the starting point for much analysis. A solid body of evidence on what took place before-particu larly how leaders have behaved~ips us off to future action. However: If you rely too heavily on history, you can overlook a change in circumstances or new factors that can cause a different olltcome.
Stereotyping People can leam from mistakes and may not repeat them.
Typgng people or issues and asing the definidon as a subsSutefor anaZysrs. Analysts often put an individual or issue into a niche. For instance, they categorize people as rightwing, leftw3ng, moderate, conservative, liberal, or the like.
You can confuse the reader with ovemsed, impreclse defritions. For instance, a Russian "conservative" once was someone who longed to retum to old-style Cornmunism. This label ran counter to the longtime defimition of Cornmunists as "radicals."
Typing can place people with widely different motives and agendas in the same group. This leads both analysts and consumers to conclude the people are acting in concert.
47 OMcial Use Only Dislorting Allowing buzs to affectyour anslysis. Your organization has to rely on the professionalism of its analysts and managers and on the rigor of the review process to keep bias to a mLnimum. You need to be wary of a couple of comrnon biases;
Letting value Judgments color your understanding of the country, people, or topic you follow~ For ezcample, we admire people who overcome great obstacles, and we approve of leaders who want to make ffieir countries democratic. If we're unwary, such feelings can influence tlle way we depict an event, causing us to [nislead ~e reader.
Ptide of authorship and sense of competition with other people, offices, or agencies. These can keep you from objectively urlderstanding what's happening. Remember that no matter how intelligentt informed, and creative you are, you aren't the font of all wisdom.
Official Use Only 4X .
. Haxldling Mind-Set
. Use Its Adssntages Analysts often rely on their ~d-sets-the distilIation of their cumu lative factual and conceptual knowledge-to make judgments about complew subjects. When thc odds favor the status quo, yout mind-set helps you ploduce timely, concise, well-argued drafts and deal with the complexity, ambigwitty, and pressures of being an analyst. - SpeSation often compensates for your lack of evidence. -Substantive biases give you a powerfuI tool for choosing among incomplete, conflicfing, and often voluniinous data. -Existing assumptions can help you predict specific outcomes regard less of the uncenainty. - You can meet short deadlines by relying more on judgment and less
Avoid Its Dangers g Your mind-set is dan$erous when it conditions you to see only the expected and miss the onset of unusual developments.
Intelllgence pros have found a number of ways to avoid the pitfalls of mind-set while eacploiting its power. They:
-Talk o"t lond to find alternative language and argumentation.
- Thmic bscJcwards from a seerrun61y unlikely outcome to determine if the available evidence could support such a conclusion.
-Brainstorxn to consider not only Fe likely but the possible.
- Use devil's advocates~olleagues who may be short on substantive knowledge but long on logic and inference.
-Extenzalizethe anaXytic process. By separating what's known from what's assl}med, they use the evidence to question convenient $eneralizations, idendfy infotmation they 've overlooked, and cormect previously unrelated ideas.
Supplement Mind-Set Stress the usefulness-as well as the quality~f your analytic production, and develop both analytic tladecraft and substantive expertise. Doing this will help you hamess mind-set's impressive energy and limit its potential damage.
You have several alternatives to relying on a preclictive approach to analysis. These alternatives further lessen the dangers of mind-set and better serve consumers' needs.
-Consider a namber of outcomes~nd well-reasoned ixnplications and indicators faf each-when the most likely outcome is less than 70 percent and less lilrely ones could pose signilcant threats to or opportunities for ie interests of the lJruted States or your parficular consumer.
49 OfEscial Use Only Focus a product more narrowly to answer specific qrzesnons. ltolicymakers and oier consumers often fimd such papers more usefi~l dlan predicfive, high-risk assessments.
Provide unsights based on uni4ue coSecofon and rigororxs research rather ian dle esimative process, ksights frevquently are belter at giving consuuners the working knowledge they need.
Use oppottunity analysis to give consumels support on which they can take action, They consider it more useful than predictions alzout whedler an already adopted policy will succeed.
Official Use Only 50
[Pages 51-56]
Getting Started With Methodologies ~G
What Are They?
Why bother? Analytic methodologies are any systematic way to manage information in order to develop your knowledge or make judgments. Many different approaches exist.
Most methodologies start by establishing a logical analytic framework. Then they use non- intuitive ways to add depth and rigor to traditional analysis.
They can be as simple as monitoring and classifying events or as complex as using computer modeling to play out different scenarios.
Methodologies can help you:
Identify your focus. Bring greater structure, discipline, and clarity to your analytic problem.
Highlight new questions and issues. Broaden your perspective. Stimulate new insights and ideas. Rethink existing lines of analysis.
Analyze trends and generate alternative scenarios. Recognize impending change or threats to US or your consumers' interests
* Make sense of a large volume of sometimes contradictory, often confusing information and evidence.
Guard against locking in a particular track. Overcome mind-set by increasing your objectivity, identifying bias, and relating unfolding events to developments in other places and times.
Identify logical inconsistencies and collection gaps.
Facilitate information-sharing with other analysts and agencies, and highlight areas of disagreement.
Add credibility to new or unpopular judgments.
rWhen Should You Use Consider a methodological approach when: One9
What? alld sn what? aren't obvious. Reporting is fragrrlentary or scarce, and sources are biased or one sided.
* Reporting is particularly rich or issues are complexc and confusing.
Mind-set gets in the way of recognizing change, especially where politicization is possible or the irnpact of the change would be s;gnificant.
A situation presents unknowns or new directions for your analysis.
What Are Simple Ones?
Nontraditional Methodologies? You can use simple methodologies to reduce complexity to manageable proportions. What you do is array information systematically using one or more of the following:
Chronology. IJists the sequence of known events to give you an objective view of unfoldsng actions. Helps you identify information gaps and inconsistencies and plan how to monitor events further.
H Sogrce list. [lelps you identify both potential reporting sources and those you've actually herd from. Tests your assumptions about source bias and the quality of your infomlation. Guides your collection.
Eventanalysgs. Reveals patterns over time by c}assifying kinds of events and their frequency and by highlighting uriique events. Allows you to objectively identify dcvelopments. Provides early warning of change. Helps you see inconsistencies aI}d plan alternative scenarios.
~Basic inflaence dsagram-showing rclationships, influence, or career paths. Helps you see patterns, put factors into better perspective, and identifsr issues for further analysis.
Systematic thznking underlies analytic medodologies that focus more directly than traditional analysis can on consumer requirements, irnplications, and uncertainties.
Opportunity analysis, Helps you think backward from an outcome your consumer desires to identify steps a consumer needs to take to achleve that outcome. The challenge is to address how instead of whether.
'sWhat ~' analysis. You change a basic premise to assess an outcome that has low probability but high impact if it would happen.
EraluaXon of alternEve scenarios. Helps you use your intuition or a methodology to lay out several possible outcomes for an inte}ligence issue or problem.
Analysts of compeEng hypotheses. Allows you to examine the entire range of possibilities to find the most likely one.
Conftictresol"tion. Helps you identify consumers' needs and the kind of analytic support you can provide for each stage of negotiations.
Prelgmrnary problem typology. Helps you assess complex issues and identify situations where you can use altemative scenarios.
Official Use Only52
Formai Methodologies?You can use foImal methodologies to add depth and sophistication to your analysis. lRhey give your tninking greater rigor and precision. They help you brainstotm, plan your research, and reassess your judgments. Most fonnal methodologies use computers to store, retrieve, and manipulate data. There are three main typesS
Expert optnion methodologies. Based on a systematic, suWective assessment of selected crxteria. These meiodologies include:
- CheckNists and analyfic guides. Provide lists of influencing factors or critena for analy6is. Used to assess, for example, military and insurgent force capabilities.
- Indxcators. Used for periodic reassessment, tend analysis, warliingt and comparative analysis on a broad range of issues, such as po~iiical change, economic reform, and instability.
-Deception snalysis. Used when evidence is ambiguous or supports conflicfing interpretations. Exarriines factors such as motive, OpporNnity, means, past practices, reliability of sources, and potential COSt or gain.
SemwuanEStzve methodologies. Quantitatively manipulate inforlTlation detived from expext opinion. Por example:
- Formal xnfluence dgagrams. C;raphically relate influencing factors and possible outcomes. Can address broad issues such as political succession. Good for consolidating piecemeal knowledge snd determirl
ing implicahon6. - PubEc opgnion polling. I)etermines elite positions on pariicllla issues. Tracks social, einic, and cultural developments.
QuanfitaAve models and data bases. StatisticaXy analyze real-time data. Especially usefut for economic and military analysis. Applications snclude: - Nuclear weapons monitoring and weapons production estimates. - Armscontolissues. - Assessments of mffitary capabilities and projected changes. - International trade and debt issues. - Irnpact of economic sanctions. - International energy issues. - Economic-sector pcrforrnance and competitiveness m world markets. - Environmental issues. - Demographic issues. -Worldwide merchant shipping. - Agricultural crop assessments.
53OMcial Use Only What Can't Melhodelogies Ilo? No methodology or decisionmaking model can;
ProvIde absolute solutions. Your analytic judgment is still what counts.
Lrnprove the qtuality of thc information you use. A methodology is only as good as you make it-by designing a precise analytic framework, using appropriate variables and complete data, and executing the methodoloRlr carefully.
v Eliminate urlcertainties alld unexpected developments.
lioretell when or how fast events will unfold.
Pxedict phenomena as distinct from decisions and policy implementatio~for eJcample, refugee ilows as distinct from refugee policy decssions.
Which One ShouldAnswer these questions when you're tyq to decide what methodologi cal approach to take: Yoll Use?
* Does the methodology match my research needs? Will it give me ie analytic framework, appendix, charts, text bos, or otherproducts I need?
Do I have to make a long-term commienent to the methodology? Can it help me brainstonn?
* Can I spend the time needed to fisiish the methodology within my production deadlines?
Is this an efficient use of my time? Are the analytic benefits worth the effort?
* Can the meCodology Address the key issues and give me the answers I need?
Will it reinforce or provide a good alternative to my analytic Judgments? Is's not wortk tlte time if it won't carry your analysis fnrsher.
Can I get the outside encpertise and computer support I need to use dle meiodolorr?
Does my office management support using the methodology?
Official Use Only54 .
. Alternative Scenarios
.
. Why Alternative Views?
Inherent Problems With changing events and increasing volumes of information, it is more important than ever that we rigorously consider all information and potential outcomes and give our consumers alternative views that will help them understand a situation fully as they make their decisions.
Alternative views are often warranted when we don't have total confidence in either our evidence or a key assumption while we're going logically through a problem.
They also can be warranted by our "feel" as experts for the logic of an issue or development. When we look at a situation, most of us realize the evidence suggests more than one outcome. We Emd ourselves saying, "well, it depends." Saying this should tell us that altemative analysis is calleel for and would help the consumer.
The warning function of intelligence analysis requires us to alert our customers to pitfalls in their way, even if those outcomes aren't as likely as our mainlin~and often more pleasant-assessment.
Consumers~specially those who are politicians~ften feel they are senecl best when we give them a range of possible outcomes. Many politicians have an intuitive respect for the serendipity of politics. They also are xnstinctively suspicious of mainline projections and resent being locked into one course of action.
Many consumers believe having alternative scenarios giVeS them a roadmap to follow-something that tells them explicitly why two or more scenarios differ and possibly suggests pressure points where the consumers could make a difference.
Using altemative analys}s reflects a healthy tension between wantmg to be right and acknowledging the value of considering several options.
Many organizations appreciate a well-conceived and asticulated line of reasoning that leads from poLnt A to B to C and ends with a wellhoned rend}tion of the major implications.
- Alternative views are inherently "messy" because they srnack of "on the one hand and on the other hand" analysis. - Alternatives somehow offexId cBur sense~which is generally correctthat good analysis is simple and direct.
Nonetheless, consumers want analysts to include alternative viewswhere appropriate in their pmducts. Effectively using altemative scenarios in your worlm shows your analytic maturity.
55O5cial IJse Only When 'ra IJse
How To Use Thirking of +'what if s" is always a good idea, and the best analysts invariably keep altemative options in mmd. Not exrcry product needs or deserves a section on altemative outcomest but there are several compelling reasons for doing altemative analysis:
When you don't have total confIdence in the assumptions or evidence for your analysis and some change ln them would justify discussing another outcome. Illis is classic "what if ~' analysis.
* When there is little chance that an another scenario would develop but, if it does, ie consequences would be significant.
When consumers ask you to give them altemative outcomes.
Alternative scenarios best serve the consumer when you develop them out oœ your solld understanding of the evidence and assumptions driving your3udgment and of the risks that less likely outcomes would pose to US interests or those of your consumer.
Make the issue of altemative views one of the basic questions you ask yourself going into any progect ~written or oral.
-Build altemative scenarios into the coriceptuafuzarzonprocess. -Settle on the altematives and decide how sound they are lvy the tne you do your conceptpt3per-not as you go along Worse yet, don't come up with new ones after you write your draft.
The review and coordination processes often uncover alternative views that deserve to be articulateds not papered over.
- Somedmes you need to recogriize that the differences you can't iron c)ut in these processes should be dlought of as potential altemative scenarios, -The darlger we face, however, is Sing the easy way out and declaring all differences to be legiimate altemative scenarios. - To avoid iis danger, ffrst make every effort to resolve differences reasonably.
Decide how many altematives are appropriate. -Make sure there are clear disencdons among them. - Minimoze their number ideally, two are Zoest, and more than four risks a muddle.
Invite a colleague to contribute an altemative scenario. Coming at an issue Som different perspectives can give consumers useful insights.
You generally should include in alternative analysis your best judgment of the probabilities of individual outcomes. You owe the reader a ranking of the outcomes and an explanation-including signposts and assumptions of that rarOing.
Vfficial Use Only56 . C-l
[pages 57-63]
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
.
. What Most of Us I)o Most of us choose Fe ist solution to an inteuigence problem that seems sattsfactory instead of looAcing st aSpossabte soUtions to pzck the best one.
When we try to anve at a judgment, we usually pick our favorite hypothesis. Ofien we do iis on ffie basis of our gut feeling.
Then we look at our infornlation to sec whether or not it supports our judgment.
What's Wrong?
A Better Way
The Method If ffie infomlation seems to support our judgment, we say ''greatl'' and don't look furdler.
If our information doesn't, we reject the information as bad, Of we pick anoier judgment and go through the same process until ^;ve find a judgrnent and evidence we think match.
What we're doing is stopping wSh rhefirstjudgment tflat seems rig}~t.
Focusinfi3 on onc hypothesis at a tzne has several weaknesses:
- We tend to see what we're looking for and not explore information rdadng to other judgments. - We overlook the fact that most evidence is consistent with several different hypotheses,
n Most of us can't thiS about several hypotheses at the same titne and how each piece of information flts into each judgment. Looldng at a single, most likely hypothesis is much easicr.
Anslysts of compering hypotl7eses gives you a technique for systematically examining a range of possible judgments and choosing the one you believe is correct
This technique wiU help you anslyze difficult intelligence issues that require you to carefillly weigh alternative conclusions and to show how you arrived at your judgment.
1. Identify all possible hypotheses to consider. Have a brainstonning session wAh a group of nnalysts who have different perspectives.
* 1taise every possibility no matter how remote. DonXt evaluate any hypothesis-that comes later
2. Make a list of the significant evidence. Include as evidence the absence of things you would expect to see if a hypothesis were ttue. The absence of evidence is as important as eviderlce you can see.
S7 Offlcial Use Only Intejpret "evidence" broadly to snclude everything that affects yourJudFnents: logical deductions, assumptions, indicators, speciEc developments.
Make a general list of evidence that applies to the sieuation as a whole.
Then consider each hypoNesis individually. Note factors that either support or contradict each one. Also note the absence of evidence .
3. Consider how each piece of evidence relates to each hypoNesis. To help you do this, create a matrzx wi~ hypotheses across the top and evidence down the side.
'rhis step differs from our natural, intuitive approach to analysis. However, the finished matrix will help you undexstand which evidence carries the greatest weight in deciding which hypoffieses are most or least likely.
In this stcp you work across the matrz. In step 5 you work down the matrLx, looking at how one hypoiesis relates to all the evidence.
After you set up your matrix, take one piece of evidence and ask yourself if it's consistent with, inconsistent with, or iIrelevant to each hypothesis. Make a notation accordingly under each hypoiesis.
After doing tlds for the flrst item of evidence, go to the second, third, and so fori.
tJse whatever kind of notation you like, such as pluses and mlnuses; C, I, and NJA for consistent, inconsistent, or not applicable; or brief words.
Evidence has no diagnostic value is it's equally consistent with all hypotheses. That iss it doesn't help you deterrnine that any one hypothesis is more or less likely than another. Deleting this lsind of evidence helps keep your matrix manageable.
{f a piece of evidence is signiScantly more or less likely for one hypothesis than another, note it under that hypothesis. For exatTlple, use double pluses or rriinuses.
4. Refine your mat~. Reconsider the hypotheses and delete evidence that has no diagnostic value.
Now ~at you see how the evidence breaks out under the hypotheses, reconsider your hypotheses. Do you need to add new ones? Keword others? Combine a couple?
lteconsider the evidence too. Are there factors not on the list ~at are influencing your thinldng about which hypotheses are most or least likely? If so, add them. Delete items iat now seem
Official Use Only 58 . . UIMII9OItallt or have no diagrlostic value~save them on a separate List so you have a record of what infonnation you considered.
5, Draw rentative conclusions about the relative likdihood of each hypothesLs. Do this by trying to refi~te hypotheses rather than corMLrm them.
* Steps 2 and 3-listing and comparing the evidence as it relates to all the hypoieses.~and step 5 force you to spend rnore analytic tLme than you would havc on what you thought were less likely hypotheses. Thus, you give all the alternatives a fairer shake.
Begin by looking for evidence that lets you reject a hypothesis. You can't prove a hypothesis is true when evidence for it is consistent with other hypotheses Honvever, a single piece of inconsistent evidence may be enough to reject a hypothesis.
The hypothesis with the most rninuses~r whatever notation you used probably is the least likely hypothesis. (The one with the most pluses is not necessarily the most likely.)
Ordering the hypotheses by the number of their minuses gives you a rough ranking of their probability. Of course, some evidence is more important than other evidence, and a plus or minus can't capture some degrees of inconsistency.
Thc matrix shouldn't dictate the conclusion to you. It should accurately reflect your judgment of what the important factors are and how they relate to the probability of each hypothesis. It also gives you an audit trail of how you arrived at your conclusion.
You may disagree widl what hypothesis the matrix shows as probable or unlikely. If so, you've left out factors that have an important influence on your thinking. Go back and put them in so the analysis reflects your best judgrnent.
6. Analyze how dependent your conclusion is on a few cntical pieces of evidence. What would be the consequences for your analysis if that evidence were wrong or misleading or could be interprered dIfferentlyl
This step helps you identify critical asS"mptions that you haven't recogriized and that, if wrong, would invalidate your conclusions.
@ Go back to step 3, where you decided which evidence was most diapostic, and to step 5, where you weighed the relative likelihood of the hypotheses.
Single out the evidence that was most influential in causing you to reject or downplay the probability of the altemative hypotheses.
59 OfElcial Use Only G4 vt..._a~ ~- w-^''J
Scrutini7e this evidence.
-What asslutuptions underlie your undGrstanding and interpretation of ~is evidence? - Dopossible iternativeexEalanations orintexpretations enst7 ~ Does the source have any motive for deceivmg you? - Do you need to go back to original source matertals to check the accuracy of transladon, wanscription, or someone el8e's intespretation?
When yOU wnte your paper, identify assumptions you used to interpret the evidence and note that your conclusion depends on the validity of these assumptions.
7. Report your conclusions. Discuss the relative likelzEzood of aEl tEle }^ypotheses, not just the most likely one.
z Consumers have to make decisions using a fiœl set of altemative hypotheses, not a single one that you tell them is most likely. DecLsionmakers may lleed contingency plans in case one of the less lilkely altematives turns out to l)e true.
To make your argument for a Judg{nent cotnplete, also discuss ie hypotheses you rejected and why you reiected dlem.
8. Identify rnilestones that might indicate events are taking a ~gfferent route from what you expected.
The situation you'te following may challge, or you may get new information that alters your appraisal.
@ You and the reader beneElt when you lay out things to look for in the filture or things unhlown to you that could change your hypothesis.
Offlcial Use Only 6U .
. .
. Opportunity Analysis
What Is It? Oppo~ity analysis provides operattonal support to consumers by ideneifying opportunities or vulnerabilities that they could exploit to
advance a policy or dangers ~at could underrnine a policy.
- Analysts have long used opportunity analysis to support nztlltary targeting, economic anaZyses, and trade, peace, arld orher negotiations.
Leadership analysis is opportunity analysis when it suggests ways eO exert leverage against foreign offiuals.
The standard to follow in doing opportunity analysis is to provide
ezcplicitly "actionable" analysis~alysis the consumer clearly can use to ma1re a decisior~without telling the consumer what to do.
For example, take US policy to redllce the production and export oiS illicit drugs in country "X." Opportunity assessrnents would identify:
- The inst}tutions, interest groups, and key leaders that support the US goKs.
- The means that the United States could use to increase ie effectiveness and presdge of these anddrug elements.
The challenges to their influence that the UnituS States could help derail or disninCh.
-The logistic, financial, and other vulnerabilittes of drug supporters Fat Fe I Joited States could exploit.
- Activities such as public diplonnacy-that could be used to win over neutral segments of the population.
What Are the Benef;ts You can get several benefits from doing opportunity analysis. It helps
ta YouS ensure that:
Your work is put to good use by your organJzation's leaders, adrninistration policy officiaIs > Congress, and other consumers .
You get illcreased guidance from consumers, which also helps yot}r agency better allocate lirnited intelligence resources.
Consumers rely more on your information arld judgments-this stIenKens your insights and leverage for avoiding politicization.
hl OffIcial Use Only tssIss~ - ~vv ~v~J
What Is "13:ffective Analssis"? Opportunity analysis makes your analysis "effective."
Part of our rnission is to ~'tell it like it is," "levd Fe playing field," and "keep the consumer honest." However, sometimes we produce too many of bese assessments and too few on what our customers think they need Eom us.
e Your analysis is "cffectlve" when consumers rely on it to afElrm factual evidence, pay senous attention to your Judgnents, and show they depend on you by gning you taskingw feedback, and guidance.
Where Can I Use You can add opportunit analysis to a Yariety of formats: Opportunity Analysis?
How Do I Do It? You can put it into a comprebensive intelligence study. Devote a section to one or more of ie following:
-The forces in count y X aligned for or against a US policy.
-County X's vulnerabilities to US diplomatc or economic leverage.
-fThe characteristics of its 1eader's negodaXng s{yle that US officials could tutn to their advantage.
You can use it in an informal memorandum or a briefing. These address a smaller chunk of an issue and are more 1ikely to capture a busy consumer's attention.
You can add it to current intelligence, Identify a newly reported factor that consumers can excploit to advance or protect US interests.
You need to think lffie a consumer but answer like an intelliget2ce mater.
First, redeEme the intelligence issue in your customer's tenTts.
- Pay attention to the consumer's role as an action officer. He or she is preoccupied with getting things started or stopped amony adversaIies and allies overseas.
-Reco~e ~e consumer's greater willingnoss to take a risk. ConSumers often 8eeg for instance, a one-in-five chance of ~g something around as a good znvestment of their efforts.
Don't let ie consumer's public optimism about an ssslle confuse you about lis or her real concerns.
Once you accept that the customer's perspective is different from the intelligence analystgs, search for ways to help your consumer inch ie odds upward.
- Do this by poinfing to opportunities and obstacles, not by distoriirxg your bottom line when you have to make a prediction and not by cheerleading.
OfEcial Use Only 62 .
. On politically sensitive issues, list for Fe consumer and then assess both the promising and discouraging signs you as an oEective obsezv=~ee for US policy goals in county X or on issue Y or for the interests of yourpanicular consumer.
Show csidence dlat you've been at work as an intcHigence analyst. Whenever you can, give an indication of your resealch effort, special sources, or disdnc6ve analydc wadecraft.
.
.
63 Official Use Only
[pages 64-72]
Handling Review and Coordination
.
Official Use Only Surviving the Review Process
.
. Cooperate, Don't Cnnfront You can surarive the review process and jncrease the chances your product will beneSt from it by keeping five principles in mind.
Work at making ie review process cooperative.
i Always try to submit ie best product you can. This will make the review process go much more smoothly.
If you halld in a shoddy piece assuming someone else will make it acceptable, you'll never build a reputation as a good, responsible analyst.
Expect and insist that reviewers at all levels give you concrete feedback so you can improve your future writing.
lf you disagree with the revie ver's changest discuss them with the reviewer in a nonconfrontional way.
Such discusston often rssults in a third way olD preseniing your analysis that is superior boF to what you origu}ally drafted and the revlewer's proposed &hanges.
Be sure that every major change clarifies and enhances the presentation of your central message.
Remember that all changes should be negotiable.
- Don't reject reviewing comments, large or small, out of hand. - Don't be afraid to disagree wilh cornments you don't think strengthen your piece.
Accept a Cvrporate Accept the fact that your piece will become a corporate product during Product the review process.
You are the primary author, but managers and reviewers have a duty to ensure that your piece is in the best possible shape in tenns of both sllbstance and style before it goes to consumers.
b Consumers view your written work as representing ~e views of your organization.
Reviewers at each level feel responsible for making sure your ptece is a coIporate product. As a result, they will review and change it.
You'll waste your tirne and ellergy if you try to preserve eveIy word or every analytic point.
Disagree with the reviewer's changes only when you can make a cogent argument that the changes weaken the piecess substance or style. Product
65 Official Use Only Se the same time, don't hesitate to defend your judgments. If yox don't stand upfor tftem, ~e rev{ewer will wonder why yon made them rn ffieffrstplace.
No One's Perfect Realize that yow analysis and writing style axen't perfect.
Itigorous review can iwrove the analysis and writing of even the most gifted analyst.
@ Reviewers often have more extensive and senior contacts m the Community ian analysts have and can provide insights on how to make your piece more relevant to consumers
Try to understand the xeviewer's viewpoint, and use his or her comrnents as a learning experience.
Reviewers have their OWIl substantive expertLse and experience on an issue and can provide insights that exLrich your analysis.
Reviewers also bring a fresh perspecie to a piece and often can detect flaws in the logic of your analytic argument or substantive points you've left out. You may have failed to notice d}esc shortconiings because you as the author are too close to the issue.
. In most cases, the reviewer svill have more experience with your orgariization's writing style and procedures and can shape your piece in ways that will help it get drough the review process.
Put Your Ego Aside
Learn'ro Laugh Focus on your piece, not on the reviewer.
Remember that the reviewer is simply doing his or her job. React to his or her cornments based on how iey ~rove or detract from your analysis or stylet not based on who the reviewer is.
. Don't take the reviewer's comments personally. Every analyst's writing can be improved, but that doesn't mean he or she is a poor analyst.
Also remernber to leam from the process. Your managers consider it part of your traingng and gristfor yourformaf evalgarion-more reasons why you should make an effort to understand why each change is made.
Maintain a sense of humor.
Nearly every analyst will experience times when the review process works poorly~uch as when changes made at one level are undone at the nest level-lvut learn to laugh about the idiosyncrasies of the process.
Remember. both revlewers and analysts can malce mistalres.
OMcial Use Only 66 .
. (zoordination Guidelines 1t
.
. What Is Coordination? Coordination is ~e prOcess during which components that work on thc tssues addressed in a draft product-written or or;d substantively seview its judgments and facts.
They have a stake in what you're sayingt or you have a stake in what iey're saying.
Why Soordinate? * Your analysis reflects ie competence and authority of your organization. Ithe orgariization corporatdy is accountable for questions consruners raise about your Judgments and facts.
J Coordinating makes the best use of an orga[iization's analytac resources. -As a coordinator, you're resporlsible for more than ens~g dlat substance and facts are accurate. - Whenever appropx}atee you should provide substante contribubons iat sharpen the draftSs judgments and lzroaden its analysis.
Handlinfi the Pressurese Keep in niind iat ffie coordination process should bllild respect among counteFparts. Coordinadon expenences between offices accumulate, creating an a~anosphere that can help or hurt you even before you ask for coordination.
Start a dialogue wi~ your countelparts-and yollr supervisor~as soon as possible, especially when yon're pl~g a longer paper. You want to get them on board with your analysis to make the coordinatio~and review~rocess easier.
Try to wrap up coordination at your level. If you can't resolve a problem, refer it to your supervisor.
Giving your counterparts as much advance notice as possible is essenttal, - Short deadlines often woi against ~e coordinalion process by skewing your efforts to resolve issues. -Sound rcason can be the casualw when short deadlines interfere wiF listening carefully to others' views, examining information Som the sources and checking other relevant data.
67 Official Use Only Space constraints in finished intelligence sometimes irow analysis off more dlan true difiEcrences of opiriion.
- Por instance, some forms of culrent intelligence have ngid fonnats that can affect how you word your judgments.
-lYy to reco~c early on whedzer you and another analyst or a reviewer have a basic analydc disagreement, or whedler you need to reword your judgments to make iem clearer widfin the space limitations.
Coordinating Research fi Touching base with each other on research programs gives balance
Programs and perspecJdve to an organization's oveIall program.
Contact your counterparts early in the plamiing process so redundant or similar projects can be combined. Discussions among analysts and supervisois should begill before pl~g the organization's program formaNy starts.
Meet with your counterparts regularly to clarify ~e scope of your pro3ect, its deadlines, and the division of labor.
Put Coordination Into Gxse counterparts a reasonable time to respond. Practice
Coordinate with all relevant components.
Build your credibil~. For instance, once you and your counterparts agree on a change, implement it. Both the analysis and your integnty are at stake.
Keep a level head. Harsh words are unprofessional, no matter how strongly you disagree. Besides, heated arguments inYariably stray from substance-leaving analytic differences unresolved.
Try to resolve substantive differences by examinLng the source documents.
Keep changes pertinent. Don't rewrite a section just because you don't like its style.
Make your commcnts speciflc. Give reasons why you disagree over substance. Ctte your supporting evidence. Suggest alternative language.
If you and yollr counterparts can't agree on the analysisl add alternative interpretations and identify facts that would resolve the issue if they were available.
Be generous if you discover factual errors. Remember, it's the coordmation process that's *le safety net for catching mistakes.
Don't forget that ie coordination process work:s both ways.
Officist Use Only 68 .
. Interpersonal, Bureaucratic, and Commurlication Skills
.
. Buiid lteiatiorships Nothg can damage your career faster than poor interpersonal skills. You need to build and maintain relationslips at all levels. Choose your ba›les carefrxlfy. Not every issue reciuires you to fall on your sword. For example, you can make concessions on substantive issues without compromising your values and principles .
Get Sawy Treat people at aX levels professionally.
s See your countewarts as a resource-partners in your efforts~ot as competitors for a œinite piece of the action or territory. Achowledgmg those who contrilvute to your work usually begets reciprocal behavior.
Look for founal and infonnal opportunities to build bridges.
- Call a counterpart when you get an interesting piece of infounation. - Arrange briefings and debrieEmgs all can participate in. Tell your co}leagues early orx about proJects you're planning so you can enrich the substantive yot, avoid duplication, and head off potendal coordination problems.
See your role in the coordination process as helping your counteq?art get work done. Your job isn't to rewrite someone else Is prose but to lay out the facts and analysis as you see them and argue your case cogently and diplomatically.
Look for win-win solutions. Making yourself look good by making someone else look bad ultimately will make you less valuable to your organization and will destroy your reputation.
@ Respect others' perspectives. A highly Judgmental and Competitive environment undennines-if not destroys~reanvity.
To become successful you have to practice sound bureaucratlc skills. Show you understand ie Lmportance of:
ProfesswnaSsm. Build a reputation for faimess. Communicate your successes without being arrogant or self-congratllatory. Increas your understanding of management's perspectives.
ReMbitSy Follow through on your professional comlnitrnents. LJook for opportunities to show you can handle increasing levels of responsibility. Take responsibility for the consequences of your actions.
In~tive. Offer up new ideas. Try new things, but keep others informed-particularly your managers.
69 Of Sscial Use Only XJ^g^vE~E ~DF ~Esew 2 'T
Learn To lZommunicate The corporsœe produtt Put your ego aside and see your products as reptesenting the views of your organLzation.
Asting qllestions. Ask for help or adlrice at the appropriate tanes from the appropnate mentors, colleagues, and managers.
Contsofs. Develop vereical and lateral networks that help you improve your products.
You can't be effect*e without good communication skills. These
involve:
Listening actively, which ~ralidates the ftelings, concems, and viewpoints of others.
Areiculating your ideas clearly and concisely in ways that don't demean others.
Using pexsuasion and negotiation to get your way, noe buUying or withdrawal.
Being sensitive to your body language.
Using humor to lighten eveIyone's load.
Adjusting your col,l..lunication style to youl audience or te occasioll.
Depersonalizing issues so ideas are challenged, not people.
Offilcial Use Only 70 .
. Giving an Intelligence Briefing
.
.
OMcial Use Only l4.ssentials of Effective Oral Presentation '1
Why Good Skills Are hnnortant to You
Preparing Your Briefing Your ability to convey a message clearly and accurately to a vanety of audiences will have a direct, immediate, and continuing impact on your career
As an intelli8ence officer, you have ~e responsibility to communicate your judgments and ewertise cleady, succinctly, and precisely in a way your audience can easily follow.
Your audience may be your supervisor to whom you have to jusfify why "this" or ~'that" needs to be done. It may be a counterpart you're having diffilculty with dwing ccordination. It may be a high-ranking agency ar US Govemment official you have to convince thst your analysis is valid.
If your orai commuliication skills are weak, you won't get your analysis across, and you'll leave a negative impression with your audiers
You need to remember a number of vital factors when you prepare a briefing. Subsequent scstions give you detailed checklists to follow.
Like analytic writing, effective oral comrnunication requires you to put an inord)nTzte amount of time Mp front conceptuali:zing, planning and rehearsing your presentation.
Your briefmg must meet the audience's needs. Don't expect the audience to ad~ust to yours.
Keep your briefing concise and to ~e pOillt.
You must present your case in a format that your audience can easily follow and that ensures you: message gets communicated.
Your fonnat should consist of an zntroXctlon, a body, and a conclesion, all of which you need to tie together with clear transifion
statements. d
The introdaction tells the audience:
- What you're going to talk about, and why it's signiœlcant. - What your bottom line is. ~ How you will organize your l?resentation.
The body follows the organization you laid out in the introduction and presents your case sn detail. It;
- Substantiates your bottom line. - Clarifies the meaning or importance of issues. - May lead Fe audience through a chaJn of events - May clarify cause-and-effect relationships. - May establish a chronological or oier sequence. .
71 Official Use Only The conclusion:
- Summarizes and reinforces your key point to make sure listeners with a short atintion span or wandoring msd don't niiss ffiem.
-May make recommendations or ask for action.
- Wraps up your brieEmg.
Using a conclusion shows how oral and written communication differ -when you write, you don't end wffi a summary.
Transifon statements: -Tell your audience when, how, and wlly you are moving to a new topic or segment.
- Separate your key points and help your listeners follow the org:~nization you promised them in the introduction.
Using transrtion statements shows how communicatirlg orally differs from writin~when you write, you put your transitions in the core assertions.
i As a rule of iumb, devote aloout 10 percent of your briefmg to the
introduction, 70 percent to the body, and 20 percent to the condusion.
If you are new to your account or uncomfortable about gzving a brieEmg, invite yourself along when the semor analyst briefs. See how he or she handles problems and criticisrns.
Be flexible. BrieEmgs mn the garnut from irdonnal or impromptu to fotrnal, prepated presentationis for high-level officials.
One of the best tricks-of-the-trade is to keep and update a &asic
brgefingJile on your account. If the unencpected happcns, you711 be prepared with information, notes, and graphics.
Plan to use vocabulary your audience can readily understand. This is especially important if yon are bnefing on a subgect the audience knows little about, a scientific or technical topic, or an issue that has a special vocabulary. Explain words and phrases unique to your subject, . Don't deluge your listeners with irrelevant detail.
PIeparation includes anticipating questions your audience might ask.
* Develop a dlick skin. Thc integrity of your judgments is paramount. You may have to teH your listeners something they don't want to hear.
Don't try to become an expert briefer overnighe. Know what your problems are, and work on them one at a time.
Of FIcial Use Only 72
[pages 73-79]
Making Your Briefing Your briefing-like your written product~reflects ie competence a Corporate Product and audority of your agency as a whole. Your agency corporately is responsible for questions listeners raise about your anilysis and facts.
e As soon as possible, get your supervisor on board Wit31 what you're going to say,
Keep in nLind that your counterparts are a resource to tap, not competitors for a piece of the action.
Contact your counterparts early in your plaruiiIlg to ensure the best product and to head off coordination problerns.
Coordinate with all relevant components before your presentation.
Give iem enough time-so they don't have to respond under pressure and you can incoiporate ieir contributions.
Follow proper procedures for briefing special people such as foreigr liaison officers cr members of Congress and their staff.
&ive your counterpasts pertinent feedback on your briefing, inclu~g any intelligence iformation you gain Som the audience. -
.
73 Official Use Only wIInclal use <1|1,~
Groundwork
Analyze the Audience What do your listeners already hlow about your subject?
What do they need to know
Wllat extra things do they want to knonv?
Do they all have basically ie same experience and knowledge, or do they have a wide variety of bacl6grounds?
What positions do they hold?
What action can they take?
What are thez ages7
Will their ages affect any aspect of your briefing?
What opinions do they already have about the subject and about you?
Is anyone likely to try to shoot down your arguments? Who?
Do they havc any individual quirks?
tIow will they likely feel at the time of the briefing? Hungry? kTsious? Tired? Worried?
Is the audience a folmal, stiff group? Or are members used tO a casual, informal type of briefing?
What other characteristics of your audience could affect your bnefing?
Analyze tlle Situaidon Is this an emergency or nonemergency briefing?
Is this a canned briefing Fat you 've given or will give more than once, or is this a one-time briefing?
. FIow large is the group?
F How much time will you have?
Is a question-and-answer session included in your time, or does the time limit apply only to the prepared part of the briefing?
* Will you be one in a series of briefers? If so, where in the series will you be7
v How much time will you have to set up?
When will the bIieElng take place?
What other characteristics of the situation might affect your bnefing?
Offfcial Use Only 74 Decide on the Kind of Presentation
Determine Your Objective Up Front
Determine Your Foctls
Decide On a Strate,gy ~ I
WhAt type Of btiefing is most appropnate for your situation? Do you
Wallt to:
-Get audience members ta do someiing or to ink dle way you do7 -lSxplain something they need to know but don't know much about yet? Update them on a situation icy're already famiL;ar with? - Provide them widl informadon on how to do sometling?
"Ae ffie end of my brieElng I want my audience to 1'
"If my audience only remembers one thing from my bnefing, I want
ittobe
What kind of strategy or combinatiuWn of strategies will be most effective for your briefing? Keep in mind your ard ience, your personsHry, ~e situst.on, and yol4r susoject matter. - Calmlogic? - Scare tacacs? - F'orceful emphasis? - Emodonalappeal? - Friendly informality? -Respectfulforrnality? - Other ideas?
IXecide On Your Main What are the matn poinos you want to cover m your brieEmg?
Points (Usually tsvo to five az best.) .
.
75 Omcial Use Only Design
Briefing Organization . Introduction.
Capture attendon; establish rapport.
Give audience a reason to listen-what's in it for iem? State essence and putpose of brieEmg. Give bottom hne. Preview main points (teZf 'em wfSt yor're goirlg to rell } em).
snsitif}n to . . .
Body (telZ 'eml
First main point. Support for point. Support for point. Eternal bansition to . . . Second main point. Support for point. Support for polst. Internal transition to . . . Third main point. Support for point. Support for poin~.
Transition to . . .
Conclusion. Restate main points ften s em whut yox toM t em) . Make conclusions or recornmendations. Wrap up.
e Transition to . . .
Question-and-answer session.
Preparation for Q&A Session . What are some questions the audience is likely to raise during or after vour brieEm~?
. What are vour ideas for answering them?
Omcial Use Only 76 Logistics
Ilems you might need to bring or arrange to have:
Overhead projector.
Overhead transparencies.
Cover sheet for transparencies
Z Pens for writing on overheads.
Pqper copies of overheads (if audicnce wants).
Slide projector.
Slides.
Videoequipmens
Videotapes.
Remote control for slide or Yideo equipment.
Extension cord.
Screen.
Plipchart stand.
FIipehart paper, pens.
Blackboardorwhileboard.
Challi or whiteboard pens.
Microphone.
Handouts.
Items for demonstration.
i Items to pass around audience.
@ Plug adapters.
ERstra bulbs for projectors.
Glass of water.
Kleenes or handkerclief
Pointer.
f Pen.
* Pens œor audience.
Notepads for audience.
Additional inforrnation or overheads for Q&S session.
Others .
77 OfElcial Use Only
. Tllings you might need to check out:
Roomsize.
Acoustics.
Temperature controls.
Drafts.
Lighting.
Location and number of electrical outlets.
Seating arrangement.
Position and operation of screen.
Outside noise and distractions.
Condition of blinds or shades.
Condition of chairs, tabless and so fonh.
If lariefing in another facility: -Materials and informadon to send in advance. - Timeneededtoartive. - Parkingpennit. - Where to park. - Person to contact upon arival. -Room to report to.
O*ers
Official Use Onls 78 Rehearsing and Delivering a Briefimg
A number of tricks-of-the-trade wili help your reduce your anJciety over a ptesentation and deal beforehand with problems that might arise.
Dealing With Anxiely First and foremostP remember that you ate there to tell your listeners
and Heading Off Prnhlems
How To Rehearse something icy don't know You are an expeIt who has been asked to share your knowledge, opinion, or judgments with the audience.
The audience hasn't come to shoot you down. Itgs come to learn Eom you.
Never wing it. Spend that inordinate arnount of tirne up Eont preparing and rehearsing your briefmg.
Make notecards for your briefing ~as few as yoll can and feel cornfortable wiE.
- Don't use full-sized sheets of paper. - Number your notecards so you can easily put them back in order if they get scrambled.
Wile preparing your briefing, decide what you would leave out if the briefer who precedes you mns over.
Whenever possible, check out beforehand the room you're going to brief in.
Just before your bnefing, do some deep breathing Oœ Esnd some quiet tirne or use relaxation techniques.
Havc someone videotape one of your brieEjngs.
- You will be amazed at how much calmer you appear than you felt inside. You'll realize that your listeners never knew how nervous you were. - A videotape iS an excellent tool for zeroing in on dlings you need to improve. n
Listeners usually don't know when you've forgoKen something.
I:)on't be afraid of pausing when you lose your place-there's nothing wrong with a few seconds of silence. Donlt f1ll the silence with detracting sounds lilQe "ah~ ahhhb~." .
h If appropriate, some movement durlng your briefin~toward visual aids, toward your audience can help dissipate aILxiety and engage your listeners.
Remember that even ff your worse nightmare comes tnle, you aren't going to die!
] Visllalization is an eaccellent way to prepare for a brieflng.
79 O^cial Use Only
[pages 80-81 not yet scanned. Page 81 is last received, but it is not clear that it is the last in booklet.]